Trump Exempts Polymarket from Investigation, Concludes Inquiry into Cryptocurrency Gaming Site

If you bet “Donald Trump ends an investigation into a Peter Thiel-backed cryptocurrency platform,” you can claim your winnings. According to Bloomberg, two investigations into the prediction market Polymarket have been shut down by the Trump administration, just in time for Republican lawmakers’ planned “Crypto Week.”

The probes, which were launched toward the end of the Biden administration, included an investigation by the Department of Justice into whether Polymarket was allowing U.S.-based bettors, who were supposed to be barred from making bets, to use the platform. Another, led by the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission, similarly was looking into bets placed around the 2024 Presidential election, and had expanded to loop in Coinbase, a crypto wallet that users can deposit or withdraw money to through Polymarket.

Now both of those are over, per Bloomberg, which shouldn’t come as a huge surprise given Trump’s usual M.O., Polymarket really hits a sweet spot for him. First, the Polymarket betting odds favored him significantly more than most polling data did (reportedly in part boosted by just a small percentage of bettors who took big positions on Trump and moved the markets for him), which he loves. Second, it’s funded by Peter Thiel, a guy who has his fingerprints all over the current Trump administration and has been a long-time Trump backer. Third, the company just hired one of Trump’s advisors, David Urban, to serve as its first lobbyist, and Trump just loves to favor trade.

The people around Trump also have little motivation to crack down on what Polymarket is trying to do. Brian Quintenz, an executive at venture capital firm a16z, was tapped to run the CFTC under Trump. He previously served on the board of Kalshi, another online prediction market that would like to operate in as unrestrained a manner as possible. Backing off on Polymarket signals a looser regulatory environment for others operating in the space. Oh, and Donald Trump, Jr. joined the board of Kalshi earlier this year, in case there weren’t enough obvious connections for you.

So, of course, the Trump administration decided to turn down the heat on Polymarket. And the timing is perfect for House Republicans as they head into their planned “Crypto Week,” during which they plan to argue for several industry-friendly policies that will loosen the regulatory strain on the cryptocurrency business. Headlining the week is the GENIUS Act, the controversial bill that would establish weak standards for stablecoins that has already passed in the Senate.