Tesla doesn’t have a strong history of releasing things on time or with promised functionality. After the latest in a series of setbacks, it seems like the EV giant’s long-awaited robotaxi service will continue that trend. While Tesla insiders now report the program will launch on June 12 in Austin, Texas, it’s still unclear what it will look like then.

In 2019, CEO Elon Musk said he was “very confident” that Tesla robotaxis would launch in 2020 and that by 2022, any non-Tesla vehicles would look like horses in comparison. Fast forward to 2025, and neither prediction has come true. Its hopefuls are still waiting on an autonomous taxi, and the company’s Full Self-Driving features have a history of crashes, largely stemming from failing to recognize obstacles.

That’s not to say the automaker hasn’t seen any victories lately. It looks poised to emerge from high tariffs on the auto industry relatively unscathed, which is not the case for many other U.S. car manufacturers. Rollbacks on crash reporting requirements and loosening self-driving regulations could help Tesla, too, given its autonomous features’ less-than-stellar safety record.

Still, Tesla’s promised robotaxi service may face an uphill battle to get off the ground. Even deciding on a name has proven difficult, as the U.S. Patent Office has denied Tesla’s trademark attempt for “Robotaxi.”

According to the Patent Office, Tesla’s targeted name “merely describes a feature” of the car and that it “is used to describe similar goods and services by other companies.” Tesla also tried to trademark “Cybercab” as an alternative, but the Patent Office rejected this attempt, too, saying the word “cab” was generic and “cyber” was “so similar to a registered mark that it is likely consumers would be confused, mistaken or deceived.”

Failing to secure a trademark is far from the only challenge facing the would-be autonomous taxi service. Earlier this year, the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) began investigating 2.6 million Teslas after the Actually Smart Summon feature caused numerous unreported crashes.

The investigation comes on the heels of another one the NHTSA opened in October 2024. This earlier probe concerns Tesla’s Full Self-Driving function, which reportedly caused crashes in low light, with one incident even killing a pedestrian. Such prominent safety concerns over the company’s autonomous capabilities cast doubt over whether its robotaxi service can safely transport anyone.

Last year, Tesla laid off 10% of its workforce, which is both emblematic of a larger problem and may pose further issues. Vehicle deliveries are declining for the brand, tightening margins, and fewer staff may make it harder to roll out necessary self-driving improvements on time. Still, the newly announced June 12 launch date makes it seem like those obstacles haven’t stopped the service from rolling out for now.

Despite these roadblocks, Musk says Tesla will start robotaxi production in 2026, which seems unlikely. Considering he also said he was confident in a 2020 release, it’s hard to put much stake in his claims about a release timeline. Tesla at least has prototypes already, but that’s far from a government-approved, working model. Musk’s ties to the administration and DOGE’s workforce cuts to regulators like the NHTSA could make the government approval portion less of a hurdle, but the technology’s maturity is still uncertain. And Musk’s suddenly acrimonious relationship with Trump may cause new issues for the once-favored automaker.

Autonomous taxi services, as a whole, have proved challenging to scale. GM started testing self-driving cars in 2016, only to cancel the project in 2024, citing high costs and rising competition. Driverless vehicles require immense resources, and even after years of advancement, they’re still far from perfect. Tesla’s series of crashes highlights the lingering safety concerns.

Of course, some robotaxi services have gotten up and running and successfully ferry passengers in some cities. However, getting approval to run these programs is a long and complex process that Tesla has only just begun. It recently obtained one necessary California permit but has reportedly not even applied for the licenses it needs from the DMV to charge customers for autonomous taxi services. Texas, though, requires no special licensing for autonomous vehicles, so a June 12 robotaxi release in Austin is still possible.

Once Tesla secures regulatory approval, its robotaxi rollout may not look exactly like it suggested in its October reveal. Most notably, Musk has confirmed that it will start with existing Model Xs and Model Ys, not the sleek, trademarked-name-pending cabs it showed off at that event.

Former Waymo CEO John Krafcik has criticized Tesla’s taxi design, saying it “makes it difficult for people to get in and out easily—not everyone will be able to use these robotaxi vehicles comfortably.” He even suggested Tesla’s self-driving claims may be misleading, citing “many ways to fake a robotaxi service.”

Tesla has come under scrutiny before for claiming to demonstrate autonomous robots when the machines were actually remote-controlled by humans. Its robotaxis could do the same, especially considering Tesla may need a remote steering function for safety purposes. There’s a lot of uncertainty around the robotaxi release, but it seems certain it won’t be what Tesla originally showcased.